AUSTRALIANS living in metropolitan areas may be logging on to the internet using the Government's $4.7 billion national broadband network as early as next April, although regional users will not be so lucky.
Industry analysts say such a scenario is only possible if Telstra wins the lucrative bid and if the Government is prepared to place an indefinite hold on extending the broadband services to underserviced regions.
The project, which has already blown its original schedule by six months, is finally back on the rails after 13 telecommunications carriers submitted their network information to the Government last week.
Proponents will use the information that details Australia's network infrastructure to bid for the contract to build a network capable of delivering high-speed internet to 98 per cent of Australia's population.
The network information is currently under review by Communications Minister Stephen Conroy's department, but it is expected to be delivered to each of the bidders for the network by early next week.
Once the network information leaves Senator Conroy's department, proponents will be given 12 weeks to finalise their bids ahead of a tentative submission deadline in early December.
Bids will then be passed on to a panel of experts, which will be given two months to assess the proposals and to identify preferred proponents.
An additional two months negotiation time will then be available before the Government signs off on the winning bid at the beginning of April - if all goes according to plan. With a good chance that a winning bidder will be announced in early April, there's an equally good chance that first services from the network could be delivered the same month.
Despite having firmly pencilled in a date for the announcement of the successful bidder, Senator Conroy declined to suggest when first services could be expected. This is not surprising as he has been stung in the past by premature predictions.
"The Government has a live, commercial selection process under way for the national broadband network and it is therefore inappropriate to speculate on the potential outcome of the request for proposals," a spokesperson for Senator Conroy said.
"It has always been the Government's position that the provision of appropriate network information to proponents is important for the success of the national broadband network process and that this should be done as soon as possible."
Earlier this year, Senator Conroy said the tender process faced tight time frames, but he expected the process would meet the Government's election promise of delivering the first services by the end of the year.
The latest estimates place first services in April next year.
Although Senator Conroy yesterday backed away from a first service forecast for the network, several analysts have predicted that services could be available just weeks after the successful bidder is announced.
"If Telstra win the bid, it will switch it on straight away in April," telecommunications analyst Paul Budde said.
"That is, of course, if the Government goes for a quick fix instead of an innovative and open access solution."
According to Mr Budde, if the Government is able to stick to its deadline, Telstra will be able to switch on the netrork in metro areas within a week of being announced the winner.
However, going with the quick fix would come with its own set of problems, he warned.
"In 2009, with or without the network, Telstra will still deliver 12Mbps to all metro areas. If the Government decides to go with Telstra there will be no competition and under-serviced areas will suffer," Mr Budde said.
"Telstra is not interested in pursuing the spirit of the network, which is about open access and broadband for under-serviced areas."
Mr Budde said the correct decision would take longer but would benefit more Australians in the long run.
"It would be much better if the Government stuck to its election promises and picked a network based on open access. Even though this may mean Australia won't see services for some months, it will be worth it."
Market Clarity chief executive and analyst Shara Evans said the network's build time and its first deliverable services would be decided by how quickly the winning bidder was able to mobilise its workforce and secure the necessary telecoms equipment.
"It all depends on who the successful bidder is, how quickly they can mobilise, whether they have contractors lined up, and if they have already pre-purchased fibre equipment," she said.
Regardless of winner, the Australian public could expect first services from the network next June, but only if the winning bidder had pre-purchased equipment on standby, Ms Evans said.
"If the proponent hasn't selected a vendor we can expect more delays," she said.
If having surplus equipment ready becomes an issue in the tender process, it may prove to be a thorn in the side for telco consortium Terria.
Although it's widely believed that Telstra has already chosen long-running infrastructure supplier Alcatel Lucent as its preferred vendor, Terria is yet to enter discussions with vendors.
Terria bid manager Michael Simmons said it was not necessary at this stage to have a preferred vendor.
"We've been sitting on selecting a vendor until we get the network information and the clock starts ticking. We are making a short list because we may need multiple types of technology from different vendors," he said.
Despite Terria's current vendor uncertainty, Mr Simmons is confident the consortium will be able to switch on services for under-serviced areas within three months, if its bid succeeds.
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